Blaine County Needs Assessment
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Executive Summary
2006 Blaine County Housing Needs Assessment
Purpose
This Housing Needs Assessment provides information on which policy decisions, local housing goals and objectives, and program options can be based. It considers various measurements of housing needs including affordability, overcrowding, condition of homes, public perceptions about the availability of housing in Blaine County relative to other problems, location of housing compared to place of work and preferences, problems employers are experiencing attributed to housing, and demand for additional units.
Methodology
This study incorporates primary research from surveys of 686 households in which 1,546 persons reside, 37 employees who live outside of Blaine County and commute in for work, and 83 public- and private-sector employers. Surveys were supplemented by interviews with representatives of major employers, property management firms, chambers of commerce, housing agencies, private developers and each of the municipalities in the county. The margin of error for household survey tabulations is generally within 3.7% at the 95% confidence level.
Demographic Characteristics
The population of Blaine County is diversified and growing. The demographic characteristics suggest that a variety of housing will be needed to serve families, singles, seniors and other households at all income levels with about one-third of units serving low income, one-third priced for moderate-income households and one-third for occupancy by upper-income residents.
· The population of Blaine County increased about 11% between 2000 and 2005 and is expected to grow at a similar rate in the next 10 years.
· Household composition varies in the county. Persons are more likely to live alone in the north valley. The mid valley has the highest percentage of single-parent families. The south-valley area has proportionately more couples with children.
· About 32% of survey respondents indicated they have a child under the age of 18 in their household.
· The types of units occupied by residents vary within the county. North-valley residents are most likely to reside in condos/townhomes/duplexes (35%) than those in the mid or south valley areas. South valley residents are predominately in single-family homes (76%) and are also more likely to reside in in mobile homes (19%) than residents in either the north valley (8%) or mid valley (4%).
· The average number of bedrooms per housing unit declines as one moves farther north in the county. Although there are many large homes located in the north-valley area, occupancy of smaller condominiums and other attached units reduces the average number of bedrooms.
· About 70% of respondents (both owners and renters) indicated they were not sure how long they plan to live in Blaine County but most (66% of owners and 46% of renters) anticipated no change in their household over the next 5 years.
· About 21% of households in Blaine County indicated they have at least one person that is age 65 or older living in their household (26% of owner households and 9% of renter households) which is up from the 2000 Census. Most seniors live in single-family homes (72%), with mobile homes comprising a distant second (13%). Only 10% reside in attached residences. Seniors occupy the same size home as lived in by non-senior households even though senior households are smaller (an average of 1.8 persons compared with 2.5 persons in non-senior households). Senior households have lower yearly median household incomes ($40,000 in 2006) than non-senior households ($60,700 in 2006). Only 4% expect to leave Blaine County within the next 5 years, indicating little out-migration of this population.
· About 39% of Blaine County’s households earn less than 80% AMI, 30% earn between 80% and 140% AMI and 31% earn over 120% AMI. North valley households are most likely to earn over 140% AMI (39% versus 28% mid and 21% south) and have the highest median income (median of $63,874 per year, compared to $60,000 in the south valley and $55,000 in the mid valley.
Employment
Job creation has been driving population growth. Since 2000, the rate of job growth has surpassed the rate by which the population has grown. The labor force has not been keeping pace with the increasing demand for workers and, as a result, employers are experiencing problems such as unfilled jobs, and the majority considers the availability of affordable workforce housing to be a serious or the most critical problem.
· Jobs increased about 13% between 2000 and 2004 and are projected to increase about 16% between 2006 and 2012. This will add an estimated 3,460 jobs and 2,680 employees to the area over the next 6 years.
· Employment in Blaine County peaks during the months of June through September, with between 1,100 and 1,300 more jobs on average when compared to other times of the year.
· Employees in Blaine County hold an average of 1.29 jobs (1.45 in the summer; 1.23 in the winter). About 10% of households have no employees (primarily retired persons). On average, there are 1.63 employees per household in households that have at least one employee.
· Hailey and Bellevue house the majority of workers in the area (60%), whereas approximately 70% of residents work in Ketchum (54%) and Sun Valley (16%). Commuting and traffic congestion during peak commuter hours between Hailey and Ketchum has long been a problem in the county.
· There is a labor shortage in Blaine County; the unemployment rate had dropped to only 2.4% as of May 2006.
· About 17% of workers (about 2,796 total) commute into Blaine County from homes outside of the county. In-commuter survey responses indicate that about 74% of these workers would prefer to live in Blaine County if affordable and suitable housing were available.
· Employers generally feel that workforce housing is a problem in the area, where 45% of respondents to the employer survey felt that workforce housing is “one of the more serious problems” in the county and another 27% indicated it is “the most critical problem”. Issues such as unqualified applicants, employee turnover, no applicants and unfilled jobs were predominant problems experienced by employers in trying to recruit and retain employees given the high cost of housing in the area. Entry-level employees and service workers generally have the most problems locating housing in the county, with mid-management professionals also having problems locating housing.
Housing Problems
The majority of Blaine County’s residents feel that housing for employees is a critical or serious problem and justifiably so given that over one-quarter live in housing that is not affordable, some live in overcrowded homes and many are unable to buy a home and are forced to rent even though they have lived and worked in Blaine County for many years. The quality of the housing inventory is not a major concern, however. Most residents are generally pleased with the condition of the homes in the which they live.
· 78% or 7,059 households feel that the issue of people of work in the county being able to find housing they can afford is the most critical problem in the region or one of the more serious problems.
· 28% of the households in Blaine County, which equates to a total of approximately 2,550 households, are living in housing that is not affordable given their incomes and are cost burdened.
· Approximately 33% of renters (932 households) are cost burdened compared with 25% of homeowners (1,500 households).
· An estimated 326 housing units are overcrowded in Blaine County.
· Residents seem to be generally pleased with the physical aspects of where they now live although renters rate the quality of their housing lower than owners and there is variation within the county.
· 79% of renters would like to buy a home within the next five years which equates to approximately 2,310 households that would like to be homeowners with cost being the single largest obstacle.
Rental Market Analysis
The inventory of rental units in Blaine County is threatened by redevelopment. A reduction in the number of units available for long-term rent at a time when vacancy rates are low, rents are rising, demand generated by job growth is increasing and no major apartment projects are planned will likely fuel the escalation in rates. Although most renters would like to own a home, many have incomes below the amount needed to afford Community Housing units now in the development pipeline. Additional rental units for low-wage workers are especially needed in the north valley.
· The number of rental units available for employees and other lower-income residents may decline as single-family homes and condominiums/ townhomes are sold to owner occupants and second-home buyers or converted into short-term accommodations.
· Rental units have been lost to redevelopment, and additional units are at risk to more profitable uses as land and housing prices continue to escalate.
· Most the county’s apartment units are federally subsidized and located in Hailey. There are several small apartment complexes in Ketchum but none of the county’s other municipalities have any major apartment complexes. The private sector is not development free-market apartment properties.
· The household survey found that both average and median rents were higher in the mid-valley area than in the north valley yet an analysis of for-rent classified ads indicated that, on a per-bedroom basis, rents are much higher in the north end of the valley than in mid valley.
· Rents have been increasing in the mid-valley area faster than in the north valley likely due to the down-valley migration of both businesses and employees, coupled with no new construction of rental units in Hailey since 2002.
· A total of 66 long-term rental units were advertised as available in early June, which equates to a vacancy of 2.3% based on an estimate of 2,923 total rental units.
· The subsidized apartment projects in Hailey do not appear to be significantly affecting the free market by keeping rents low or creating high vacancies among market-rate rentals.
Design and Development
Blaine County’s households are generally in agreement concerning what they want in a home although there are a few clear distinctions within the county and opportunities to market various housing products. Most would prefer a small single-family house with storage and three bedrooms although condominiums and townhomes appeal to some. Most residents now live in the community that is their first choice but consider proximity to employment about equal with community character and amenities. The market for ownership is deep and varied with units needed for entry-level buyers all the way through move-up homes for families.
· Throughout the county, storage for vehicles and equipment is the most highly desired home characteristic.
· Community character, proximity to employment and community amenities are the most important attributes that residents consider when choosing a location to live.
· The availability of transportation is particularly important to residents who want to live in Bellevue.
· The majority of residents already reside in the community that is their first choice. Most of the residents who do not already live in their first-choice location would rather live farther to the north.
· Of five choices in housing type and cost, the smallest, lowest-priced single-family house received the most first-choice responses in all three areas. At least one of the five options provided was acceptable to the majority of residents surveyed.
· Responses indicate that three-bedroom/two-bath homes with a two car garage would be the most popular product.
· Low-interest home improvement loans and sweat equity ownership were the most acceptable of the housing assistance options offered.
· Deed restrictions limiting increases in value to a maximum of 4% per year were not well received; almost twice as many respondents would not consider them as would although, of households surveyed, 26% in the mid valley and 21% in the north valley would definitely consider them.
· Approximately 5,168 households would like to buy a home in Blaine County. Of these, 2,309 now rent; 1,654 are owners who want to purchase a different home from the one in which they currently reside; and 1,205 currently in-commute to Blaine County from work outside of the county.
· County wide and particularly in the south valley, seniors are more interested in assistance to make their homes more accessible, which would enable them to stay in their homes longer, than in options that would involved moving into some type of senior-specific housing. Rental housing that includes services (meals, transportation and activities) and living in a 65+ retirement community received sufficiently high ratings to warrant further consideration but these types of housing do not appeal to the majority of seniors now residing in Blaine County. Mid-valley seniors are more likely than others to use all types of senior housing services.
Gap and Demand Analysis
With housing demand growing faster than the housing supply, the net demand for additional units to accommodate the workforce and sustain the economy has almost tripled since 2002. Now, approximately 1,200 units are needed and that number will almost double by 2010. Where units should be built varies depending up criteria used – the preferences of residents in terms of where they most want to live are not aligned with the location of jobs, which is the driver of demand for the units. If location preferences outweigh close proximity to employment, about an equal number of Community Housing units should be developed in the mid-valley and north-valley areas. Compared to the north valley and south valley, there is relatively little demand for Community Housing in the rural area south of Bellevue (about 15% of total demand). At least 335 units will be needed in the south valley by 2010, however, and the number will increase if commercial and industrial space proposed for Bellevue is developed. The marketability of housing built in the southern portion of Blaine County will also depend upon the extent to which demand in the north and mid valley is addressed.
· At present, there is demand for approximately 1,200 units needed to address the deficit 2002 (473 units); address the deficit generated between 2003 and 2005 (408 units); and, attract employees to fill vacant positions (322 units).
· An alternative methodology to calculate demand based on employees who now commute into the county for work but would like to live in Blaine County results in a substantially similar estimate of 1,251 additional units now needed.
· By 2010, demand will be generated for approximately 1,187 additional units -- 960 units to accommodate growth in the labor force through in-migration to sustain planned business expansion and continued development, and 227 units for employees needed to fill positions that will be vacated by retiring workers.
· In total, approximately 2,390 units of community housing will be needed by 2010.
· All units should be developed in the north valley if location of employment is the only consideration; however, if preferences of residents concerning where they most want to live are taken into account, approximately 1,000 units should be developed in the north valley, 1,050 in the mid valley and 335 in the south valley.
Recommendations
A multi-faceted regional strategy that comprehensively addresses the gap between housing supply and demand and widely spreads the burden of responsibility should be developed. This strategy will necessitate involvement by multiple jurisdictions and should include the tools enacted by each municipality and the county within an overall county-wide plan, should be developed. Customizing policies, goals and programs to local conditions is an important component of any successful housing strategy. This report provides information as to how needs, demand, desires and opinions vary throughout the county so that local approaches can be tailored to be responsive and effective within a regional framework.
To date, several techniques have been used to produce community housing including:
· The federal Section 8 New Construction and Low Income Housing Tax Credit programs for low-income apartments in Hailey and Section 8 rent subsidy vouchers for 10 to 15 scattered;
· Inclusionary zoning, both commercial and residential linkage, and a housing fund established with surplus general revenues in Sun Valley;
· Inclusionary zoning in Hailey;
· Inclusionary zoning in unincorporated Blaine County; and
· Density bonuses and negotiated agreements with private developers throughout much of the county.
In addition, the City of Bellevue is considering Community Housing components within three developments for which annexation is being requested. Since there are no plans at present to expand the Section 8 program or apply for tax credits to finance apartment development, the requirements placed on residential and commercial developers by the municipalities and the County are the only tools being used. Additional efforts will be needed to develop far more units than these requirements will produce. A strategy that spreads the responsibility and the financial burden beyond new development is needed to both defensibly address the existing gap and garner community acceptance for Community Housing. Based on variation in public perceptions about housing, strategies aimed at addressing employee housing will not receive the same level of public support in the south valley as elsewhere in the north- and mid-valley areas.
The specific recommendations made below have not been prioritized or fine tuned in consideration of resource availability. They should not be viewed as a substitute for a comprehensive strategy, which should be developed through an interactive process involving local officials, housing advocates, realtors, property managers, developers, employers and residents in need of housing. Specific recommendations include:
· Commence planning for apartment development. It takes at least three years to design, finance, obtain approvals and construct an apartment property.
· Monitor rental vacancies and the loss of additional rental units to redevelopment over time to make adjustments in the number of units planned to meet projected demand.
· Pursue a replacement policy for loss of modestly-priced apartment, condominium and mobile home rentals.
· Distribute mixed income rental housing throughout the region including units for lower-income households in the north end of the valley.
· Consider mechanisms for providing move-up opportunities for households who now own homes that is somehow tied to preserving the affordability of their current, smaller home for entry-level buyers.
· Broaden the income ranges for which Community Housing is produced; consider sweat equity and publicly-subsidized approaches for development of homeownership for categories 2 and 3.
· Consider the establishment of a down payment assistance program or other form of subsidy to help low- and moderate-income renters move into ownership.
· Consider development of modular or mobile home parks for entry-level ownership.
· Track community housing units built and in the planning pipeline by the income category that will be served. Compare this to the income distribution of the county’s households and the applicants on BKHA’s wait list to gauge which groups are being served the most proportionately and which ones are the most underserved.
· Update demand estimates on a continual base basis by monitoring commercial and residential construction and applying job generation ratios to square footage. This will require that building permit information be compiled and that records maintained by each community improved to tract square footage of construction.
· Enhance County Assessor records to track number of units in multi-family properties and square footage of commercial structures. Use this information to identify trends in ownership/occupancy and demand relative to supply.
· Consider a dedicated revenue source (tax) to address the existing deficit.
· Consider annexation policies that consider more than the direct, on-site impacts of the developments when determining the number of Community Housing units that should be required; other techniques are more limited whereas annexation can be used to address existing deficiencies and achieve broad reaching community goals.
· Consider growth management techniques that slow down the rate by which housing demand is fueled by job growth.
· Initiate legislation for establishing and funding a workforce housing program in Idaho that can be used in high-cost communities – Blaine County is no longer the only major destination resort area in Idaho with housing problems that federal programs do not address.
It is important that the above recommendations are not the only techniques given consideration. It is equally important, however, that something more be done soon. Communities should continue to pursue a pragmatic approach through which the strategy evolves over time to include a full array of tools and techniques rather than waiting for an all inclusive strategy to be perfected.
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